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Monday, March 19, 2018

“The most accurate forecaster has predicted the price of oil”

Since Yegor Gaidar’s government has avoided publicly predict the oil price and the ruble, considering it “guesswork”. However, the member-correspondent of the RAS, scientific supervisor of Institute of Economics RAS Ruslan Grinberg, apparently, not often drinks coffee, but predictions are frighteningly accurate. Thus, on November 11 of last year (see “MK” from 12 November 2015), he said to the observer “MK”, 10 January the course will be 74,65 rubles per dollar. And practically not wrong. For comparison: the budget for 2016, which was argued in November of last year, based on 63 rubles for “green”. In this interview Greenberg calculated the oil price this year — the corridor could be $35-45 per barrel. Check it out. And while the wording “MK” congratulates Ruslan Semenovich with today’s anniversary — his 70th birthday! We wish you health and further success.

photo: Mikhail Kovalev

— What a gift for the 70th anniversary you yourself have done?

— In our family in April is the addition. I would have a baby.

— What gifts from others you would like to receive on this day?

— Good mood want on this day, drive is not enough.

— You in London, there is now optimism?

Yeah, not particularly optimistic. It seems that we are starting to adjust to life in recession or stagnation — we will oscillate between these two States.

— Now there is a debate between those who argue that we should cut down on their spending and those who believe that, on the contrary, should expand the money supply. Which side are you on?

— During a recession, liquidity should increase. It is a law of Economics. But it bothers me a blanket to him. Here important link additional funding to specific infrastructure projects. Additional financing is possible even through the development of the debt economy. The increase in the money supply without analysis and control leads only to a further weakening of the national currency. The government should initiate projects rather than wait for them from the private sector. It is clear that there are risks, but the risks of inaction is even higher. As for now the only debate between the Ministry of economic development and the Ministry of Finance. Now it is necessary to find a compromise.

If we were in Europe or America and were in a recession, and don’t need to think — you just print money. But the dollarization of consciousness. Hasty liberalization of foreign exchange by our exports monocultures always harbored risks a situation in which we now were.

— Your prediction?

Regardless of the decision of the government, we have to live in conditions of stagnation of investment and consumption. Thank you that we still have immunity. In addition, the public consciousness is, it can stand the difficulties. Zero growth we achieved for several years.

— What will be the price of oil to the end of this year?

— $35 per barrel. Maybe the oil price will reach $45. But there are no prerequisites for price hike in the oil market. The narrower the corridor of fluctuations of oil prices, the greater the chance of stabilization of the ruble. Now the main problem is the volatility of the exchange rate of the national currency.

— There are other factors that affect the ruble?

For example, neprochitannoe the increase in the money supply, setting interest rates below inflation. All this can lead to the fact that devaluation is possible and without the impact of oil prices. But this will not happen because our government follows the principle of monetary stability — however, never achieves. In short, as my Polish friend, we have a good situation, but not hopeless.


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