Reached by Russia and the USA the agreement on a ceasefire in Syria, which in the case of the consent of the parties to commence on 27 February, raises many questions related to whether to follow the terms of the document. “MK” asked the experts on the Middle East to find out how the agreement will change the situation in Syria, and why the day he was announced, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad suddenly announced scheduled for April 13 parliamentary elections.
“This agreement fully meets the interests of the leading regional powers,” — said “MK” Professor of the faculty of history, political science and law RSUH Kosach Grigorii. According to him, the troops of the moderate Syrian opposition will still be subject to impacts. “The situation around Aleppo, today the extremely difficult, — said the expert. — Highlight those areas that are either controlled by the “Islamic state” or the “Frente al-Nusra” (groupings recognized in Russia as a terrorist and banned. — “MK”) is difficult, therefore, these blows will be struck and the units of the Syrian opposition that are not mentioned in the relevant statement… do Not forget that in the conditions of the agreement, Turkey will be deprived of the opportunity of attacking the Kurds, and it is also not in its interest”.
Assad announced the elections on 13 April, according to the analyst, indicate the desire of the Syrian President to maintain power and confidence in Russian aid. “Assad, affirming the possibility of these elections, suggests that Russia will assist him in the attack, he will achieve the desired results, and the situation on earth will be radically changed, — says Gregory Kosach. — This will allow him to stay in power. The statement on the holding of these elections is an indication that he’s not going to leave.”
“Now Assad is a pretty good position, because his army is advancing — said “MK” researcher of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Melamedov. — It controls, may be less than half of the country’s territory, but this territory is home to nearly 80% of the population. Secondly, there are national minorities, including Christians, Druze and many others, which, of course, will vote for him. Finally, recently there were reports that even some of the opposition, moving to his side, so now is a good moment.”
Grigory Kosach: “establish a truce in a week means that Syrian government forces will continue to develop its offensive with the support of Russian aviation. It will continue to change the situation on the ground. Patronized regional powers the units of the Syrian opposition are likely to continue to retreat. This will create for them a situation of weakness in future talks”.
The expert believes that the agreement Russia and the USA does not clarify the situation with the Syrian Kurds. “The fact that the Kurds formally do not fall under the category of government troops, nor under the category of opposition, nor under the category of terrorists, — told “MK” Grigory Melamedov. Then the question arises: what is decided with regard to them? Does them a truce? If they will not stop the offensive, then the Kurdish-Turkish tensions remain. The second point — who benefits. Really now it is profitable to opposition groups, i.e. those which are considered to be relatively moderate and are supported by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, because they suffered very heavy losses. They need to “survive”… Another threat: in such confusion, as, for example, in Aleppo, where there are several different armed groups, in practice it is very difficult to understand who is where, and because such agreement can very easily be broken, even by accident.”
As Turkish reactions to the agreement on Syria, then, according to the President of the Institute of religion and policy Alexander Ignatenko, to the United States she was able to “pacify”. “It seems that Turkey has been able to implement some frame — said “MK” expert. She declares by the mouth of the Prime Minister (this shows some contradictions in the Turkish government) that it will not carry out a land operation in Syria. It will or will not be, another matter. But the statement said that Turkey was given some pressure. Most likely, this made the US”.