Businessman Donald trump won the third victory in preliminary elections held in the United States. “Caucus meetings” were held in Nevada, where the candidate of the Republicans bypassed party colleagues Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Previously, Trump managed to win in South Carolina and in new Hampshire. Long as only one defeat to our rivals in the first Caucuses held in Iowa. “MK” tried to evaluate the chances of trump to be reached before the presidential elections.
photo: Natalia Muslinkina
It’s no secret that the involvement of trump in the presidential campaign is seen by many as a curiosity. Not all saw the millionaire as a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. However, even after losing the first preliminary elections – Caucuses – in Iowa, trump catch up as much in three States.
But how realistic are his chances to become the candidate of the party “elephants” (Republicans) in the elections of 2016, may show so-called “super Tuesday”, is scheduled for March 1, said in an interview with “MK” senior researcher of the sector of external and internal policy of the USA IMEMO Victoria ZHURAVLEVA. “While the chances of trump’s great, but it can change very fast, because the primaries and Caucuses will be held March 1 in several States (this year in thirteen – “MK”). After that, it will be easier to mathematically calculate how many votes the candidates still need to win, and win is it possible in principle”.
According to the expert, on hand to Trump played “General trend” of discontent in American society, although still early in the campaign, many doubted that he would overcome the elections in Iowa and new Hampshire. “Now in four States, three of which he won. And even losing in Iowa is not really a defeat as trump for second place in such a conservative state, it’s a very good result”, – said Viktoria Zhuravleva..
As you know, the Caucuses in Iowa are crucial in the political life of the United States. It is considered that the winner from the party in this election is becoming, ultimately, a party and a candidate in the presidential race. So, for Democrats in 8 cases out of 11 the candidate for election has become the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. The Republicans are 6 such cases out of 10.
Recall that on the ballot in Iowa this year the victory among Republicans was won by Ted Cruz. Now he is sure that he is the only competitor to trump – in spite of the fact that not only three defeats millionaire, but twice, another Republican, Marco Rubio. But with him, I’m sure Victoria Zhuravleva, has all chances to become the candidate from “elephants”: “Rubio is in any case can not be discounted, because he is the only candidate of party functionaries, after Jeb Bush came out of the race. And after the election in South Carolina I appear official statements in support of Rubio from various governors and other representatives of the Republicans. And it is obvious that he is the candidate of the party elite”.
As for cruise, despite his optimistic statements, his situation is not too favorable. “He’s not super popular, like a Trump, and enjoys the support of party functionaries. – reminded us expert. – With the Republican party he actually complex relationships, its not really love, because it is rigid, schematic, not going on compromises, just like Sanders within the Democratic party. And, so, it completely depends on the electorate. And I personally doubt that he had the support of the electorate in the fight against trump. Cruz is very conservative, he works for a certain category of the population, right-wing conservatives. In conditions, when the Republicans offer a moderate candidate, trump better odds. It focuses on unhappy people from different backgrounds — and extreme conservatives, and moderates, while Cruz focuses strongly on right-wing attitudes, religiosity, conservative foundations. And it is unlikely he will rack up enough votes with this position”.